Analyzing the Presidential Polls

Leo Humphrey, Staff Writer

As the 2020 election gets closer and closer, the certainty of who will win the White House becomes more and more clear.

Last election in 2016, the polls predicted a Hillary Clinton victory, but due to a “major polling error,” Donald Trump had won by 36 electoral votes. Since then, pollers have had four years to adjust and patch the holes that made such an error possible. The current sources for my analysis are going to be and YouGov.
As of Oct. 28, the current polls show that former Vice President, Joe Biden has a 8.6 point lead over Donald Trump. On that same day in 2016, Clinton had nearly a 5 point lead over Trump. A key difference between these two elections is the amount of support displayed overtime for Clinton and Biden. Clinton and Trump’s approval had been going up and down in a very unpredictable fashion throughout the election. Biden on the other hand has had a very steady lead over Trump since March. By the end of February, Biden had a 4.1 point lead. Of course, that far from the election, that number means almost nothing, but Biden’s lead has only gone up. On the 4th of July, Biden had a 9.6 lead and, since then the polls have shown a very steady lead. Halfway through October, Biden had a double digit lead maxing at about 10.7 for and 11.1 for YouGov.
As far as the polls go, Biden is favored to win the election. According to this data and how we stand today, one week from the election, there are two major states that will determine who wins the election. The first of which is Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania was won by Trump in 2016 by a .7 point lead which shocked everybody. The reason why this state is so important is because it directly determines whether or not the rust belt (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania) will go to either party. If Pennsylvania goes to Biden, then the chances of places like Michigan going to Trump become almost impossible. Currently in October, Biden has a 5.1 lead in Pennsylvania and we haven’t seen that change much over the past five months. Biden also has a very high chance of winning Pennsylvania because Joe Biden actually lives in Scranton, Pennsylvania, and, as the Democratic primaries would suggest, mentioning where you are from and where you live can very much increase your chances of winning that state, like Bernie Sanders with Vermont. Anyway, if Pennsylvania is called for Joe Biden, according to, he will have a 98% chance of winning.
The second state that could very well drive the direction of the election is none other than the wild card itself, Florida. Florida is a very scary state when it comes to election data. It’s a hard one to nail down and, currently in October, Biden has a 1.4 point lead on Trump in Florida which isn’t ideal for Biden but it’s still a lead. The reason why Florida is so important is because if Trump does manage to somehow win Pennsylvania and Biden wins Florida, Biden would still have a 91% chance of winning. Even if Biden loses Florida but still has Pennsylvania Biden’s victory chances get up to 94%. When it comes down to it, things are not looking good for Donald Trump and we may have a very clear winner.
One last small segment would be Texas; Trump has been leading a very thin line there. Ever since January, we have seen Texas lean closer and closer to the left. And currently in October, Trump has only a 1.9 point lead in Texas, a state that has been locked conservative and red since 1976, my mom wasn’t even born yet. Do I think that Texas will go blue this election? No. The numbers are saying it’s very close, but I don’t think it will turn blue on Nov. 3. If it does though, it’s absolutely over for Trump and it’d be a landslide with 416 electoral votes. The chances are slim, in part to do with the mass voter fraud going on in Texas. The Governor of Texas made a ruling stating that there would only be one ballot box in each county of Texas, Texas has 254 counties most of which being farmland. Serious scheduling is now required to vote in Texas, with Texas also stating that mail in voting is only allowed if you qualify. It’s incredibly illegal, so in order to counter this injustice we must vote for the one not doing fraud. So if you are able and old enough, PLEASE for the love of everything that is holy, VOTE. These polls mean absolutely nothing if you don’t vote.